Taking Chips Off the Table…or Revisiting the Plan?
- Doug Oosterhart, CFP®
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
When markets sit near all-time highs, the same question tends to pop up:
“Should we take some chips off the table?”
It’s a fair question.
After several strong years in the market, many investors are looking at account balances that are higher than ever. That’s a good problem to have. But it also brings a natural instinct to protect what’s been built.
Before making changes, it’s worth reframing the question.
What’s Really Being Asked?
When most people ask whether they should “take chips off the table,” what they usually mean is:
Should we reduce risk because the market feels high and might be due for a decline?
That assumes we can forecast what’s coming next.
History suggests otherwise.
Market forecasts have been cautious for years. Yet markets have frequently delivered stronger returns than expected. If there’s one consistent lesson, it’s that predicting short-term market movements is incredibly difficult.
Uncertainty isn’t a flaw in the system. It’s part of how markets work.
The Cost of Trying to Be Early
Investor Peter Lynch once said:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
That line captures something important. Attempting to sidestep every downturn often results in missing meaningful recoveries. And those recoveries tend to happen quickly, often when sentiment is still negative.
Trying to be early frequently costs more than simply staying aligned with a well-built plan.
A Better Question
Instead of asking whether the market might fall, a more productive question is:
Do we need to take chips off the table?
That shifts the focus away from forecasting and back toward planning.
Two practical questions matter here:
Have your goals changed?
Do you have enough in stable, lower-volatility assets to cover your near-term income and planned expenses?
If your goals haven’t changed and your short-term spending is already covered, your current allocation may still be doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.
If something in your life has changed, that’s a different conversation.
When Adjustments Make Sense
There are times when reducing risk is absolutely appropriate:
Approaching retirement
A large purchase or distribution coming up
A meaningful change in income needs
A shift in comfort with volatility
In those cases, adjustments aren’t emotional reactions. They’re strategic decisions based on real life.
That’s very different from selling because the market feels “high.”
Planning Over Prediction
Your financial plan shouldn’t be built on headlines or forecasts. It should be built on:
Your goals
Your time horizon
Your income needs
Your tax strategy
A realistic understanding of how markets behave over long periods
Markets will rise. Markets will fall. Uncertainty isn’t going away.
The goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty. It’s to structure your portfolio in a way that accounts for it.
Taking chips off the table makes sense when your life requires it. Doing so because of fear about what might happen next is a different conversation entirely.
If nothing in your life has changed and your short-term needs are covered, staying aligned with your plan is often the most disciplined move you can make.
